Climate Change Migration will change the face of America during the 21st Century. For example, flooding could force 13 million people to move.
Florida, in particular, could lose up to six million residents, The Guardian claims. Obviously, such a migration will destroy billions of dollars’ of property values.
Interestingly, such large-scale migrations are in keeping with American history. There have been several huge migrations over the course of the country’s growth.
For instance, 2.5 million people left the Great Plains during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Over 13 million African Americans moved out of the South between World War I and the 1960s.
Migration Made America Climate Change Migration will Remake It
Such migrations can have unanticipated effects. For instance, there was a migration of tens of thousands of poor white families out of the slave states before the Civil War. In particular, one of those families was that of future President Abraham Lincoln (R-Illinois).
Therefore, such migrations will have unanticipated effects on the country. To explain the migration of African Americans to Detroit before World War II, transformed popular music through Motown.
An obvious impact of Climate Change migration will be the movement of millions of Latinos from Florida to points farther north. An especially interesting economic impact could be the collapse of retirement communities in Arizona.
To emphasize 155 people reportedly died because of heat in Phoenix in 2017. Under those circumstances, all it will take is a few years of high temperatures to drive large numbers of seniors out of that city.
Climate Change Migration will reverse America’s Population Flows
The most fascinating effect of climate change migration will be to reverse America’s population follows.
The greatest demographic change in the United States during the second half of the 20th Century was the rise of the Sunbelt. Notably, tens of millions of people moved to states like Florida, Texas, and California, because air conditioning made them livable.
Climate change migration will reverse that pattern. In particular; Southern states could lose 8% of their population, while the Northeast’s population could increase by 9%. In detail, University of Chicago researchers made That projection in a paper.
Climate Change Migration will Wipe Out Miami
Climate Change migration will lead to population increases in some states. For instance, Texas could gain 1.5 new residents, demographer Matthew E. Hauer projects.
The biggest loser from Climate Change Migration will be Miami. In particular, Hauer expects Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Palm Beach to lose 2.5 million residents during the 21st Century.
Significantly, some residents of South Miami are already selling their properties, The Guardian reports. For example, residents are already complaining of garbage washing onto decks because of rising sea levels.
Cities that will grow because of Climate Change migration include Atlanta, Denver, Austin, Seattle, Chicago, and Orlando. For instance, Atlanta and environments will gain 320,000 new residents in Hauer’s forecast.
How Real Estate Speculators will cash in on Climate Change Migration
Obviously, real estate speculators will cash in on Climate Change Migration and make fortunes from others’ misery.
Notably, speculators could make fortunes in the Orlando, Ocala, Tallahassee, and Gainesville areas. Those cities are the only urban areas in Florida that Climate Change will not flood.
Two other probable hotspots are Stockton and Sacramento, California. Specifically, those cities are probable destinations for Climate Change refugees moving out of San Francisco, Oakland, and other Bay Area Cities.
Further south, Hauer projects a migration from Los Angeles and Orange County into the Inland Empire. Therefore, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Escondido will see population growth.
Strategies for Speculating on Climate Change Migration
Speculators could look at Hauer’s Climate Change Migration map; now at the Guardian’s website, to see where to buy. A fascinating strategy will be to short coastal real estate or companies invested in coastal real estate such as Disney.
Stock pickers might buy Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS); which obviously owns a lot of land around Orlando, as a Climate Change Migration hedge. To explain, Orlando is the home of Walt Disney World.
Likewise, speculators could short companies heavily invested in expensive waterfront real estate in Miami or office buildings in Manhattan. A short term strategy could be to buy up properties in Miami after flooding then sell them when the weather gets good.
To explain, a likely scenario is that property values in coastal areas will fluctuate with sea level. For instance a couple years of low seas, will keep values high, while a year of high tides will sink real estate prices.
Such speculation will be risky because local events shall complicate matters. For instance, flooded sewers are driving residents out of South Miami.
Localized migrations will occur as climate change events destroy specific properties in a region. In particular, wildfires will destroy the value of a lot of pricey homes out in the woods.
A likely scenario is a vast increase in the prices of urban and suburban homes in scenic areas as fires get worse. Therefore, the most valuable home in town might be the one closest to the firehouse.
How Speculators will profit from Properties destroyed by Climate Change
Another kind of speculation will buy climate affected properties in hopes of a government payment to demolish or abandon them. For example, some flood prone houses in Staten Island, New York, and Houston are already being bought and torn down by authorities.
An obvious development will be the abandonment of many homes in rural areas. Governments in states like Colorado and California are likely to take drastic steps to clear homes out of mountains or forests soon.
A likely scenario is the buyout of coastal and forest properties to reduce disaster response costs. To explain, a bulldozer is cheaper to hire and deploy than a fire truck or a rescue helicopter.
Speculators and investors that pay attention to Climate Change migration will make money from it. People that ignore climate change migration will lose money from.
The bottom line is that Climate Change migration will change America. Those who are ready for that change will profit from it.
This commentary first appeared at Market Mad House your balcony seat for real estate stupidity.